OpenAI’s Possible IPO: What’s Real, What’s Rumor, and What to Watch

OpenAI is laying groundwork for a public listing, but the timing, valuation, and even the structure of the company make this a more complicated IPO story than most.

OpenAI is exploring a path to the public markets, with people familiar saying a listing could value the company as high as $1 trillion. Executives have discussed windows ranging from late 2026 to 2027, though the company stresses that an IPO isn’t the near-term focus and plans could change with business and market conditions. In other words: there’s smoke, and quite a bit of it, but no fixed date yet. 

The new corporate chassis makes an IPO easier

Two days before those IPO reports, OpenAI finished a major recapitalization. The nonprofit parent, now the OpenAI Foundation, controls a for-profit public benefit corporation called OpenAI Group PBC. The Foundation holds 26% of OpenAI Group and also has a warrant that could increase its stake if long-term valuation milestones are met. Microsoft holds “roughly 27%” after the recapitalization, with the remainder owned by employees and investors. A public benefit corporation is still profit-seeking but is legally obligated to advance its stated mission, useful context when you think about the trade-offs public investors will evaluate. 

This change matters for a listing. Earlier structures (including the capped-profit LP) complicated traditional equity issuance; the new PBC framework with conventional stock and a mission lock from the Foundation looks built to raise large amounts of capital repeatedly, on private or public markets. 

Why go public at all?

Capital needs. OpenAI’s AI build-out is extraordinarily expensive, from data centers to specialized chips. Insiders describe plans that require trillions in infrastructure over time. Public equity would make large acquisitions and mega-capex easier, and would diversify funding beyond strategic partners. Reuters also reports that OpenAI’s annualized revenue run-rate may hit about $20B by year-end 2025, a scale at which public market access becomes practical. 

Valuation markers before an IPO

In October, OpenAI facilitated a $6.6B employee share sale that implied a $500B valuation, one of the largest secondary deals ever for a private AI company. The buyer group included Thrive Capital, SoftBank, Dragoneer, Abu Dhabi’s MGX and T. Rowe Price. Secondary sales don’t set IPO prices, but they’re fresh comps that show how late-stage investors are thinking about value and liquidity.

On the operating side, leaked and reported figures show the company’s revenue base swelling: about $4.3B in the first half of 2025, more than all of 2024, according to The Information’s numbers relayed by Reuters; separate Reuters pieces have cited $10B–$12B annualized run-rates mid-to-late 2025. These are directional signals, not audited S-1 data, but they explain why the IPO conversation is now credible.

Governance, Microsoft, and who’s really in charge

A frequent IPO question is “who controls the company?” The answer is unusual here. The OpenAI Foundation appoints and can replace OpenAI Group’s directors and retains mission-focused governance rights. At the same time, Microsoft remains a major shareholder (about 27% post-recap) and strategic partner. For public investors, that blend, mission-locked control plus a powerful partner, will be central to how they underwrite long-term decisions about model releases, safety standards, and monetization.

Risks that could shape the prospectus

No growth story is risk-free, and OpenAI’s S-1 (whenever it comes) will have an unusually long “Risk Factors” section.

• Legal and content provenance. Copyright and data-use litigation remains active. In late October, a U.S. judge allowed parts of authors’ copyright claims against OpenAI to proceed, while other claims were dismissed. OpenAI has also disclosed changes related to preservation orders in the New York Times case. These matters don’t preclude an IPO, but they do affect disclosures, potential damages, and product design, especially around training data and opt-outs.

• Capex & unit economics. The buildout of compute and energy is capital-intensive; public investors will scrutinize gross margins net of cloud commitments and the balance between consumer subscriptions, enterprise deals, and API usage. (Recent reporting ties the IPO chatter directly to the need for cheaper, scalable capital for that build-out.)

• Partner concentration. Microsoft’s role is both a strength (distribution, Azure, cash) and a concentration risk that will draw attention in any roadshow. The recapitalization reduced some constraints, but interdependence remains material. 

So, is an IPO “upcoming”?

The most accurate read today: pre-IPO positioning is underway; timing remains fluid. Reuters’ reporting says the earliest filing window discussed is late 2026, with some insiders pointing to 2027, and the company publicly saying an IPO is not its focus right now. Investors should treat “$1 trillion IPO” headlines as scenarios, not commitments, until there’s a filed S-1. 

Sources

• Reuters ,  “Exclusive: OpenAI lays groundwork for juggernaut IPO at up to $1 trillion valuation” (timing, potential valuation, capital rationale, run-rate commentary). Reuters

• OpenAI ,  “Our structure” (recapitalization details, PBC, Foundation stake and governance, Microsoft stake). openai.com

• Reuters ,  “OpenAI hits $500 billion valuation after share sale to SoftBank, others” (employee tender size and valuation; investor list). Reuters

• Reuters ,  “OpenAI’s first-half revenue around $4.3 billion ,  The Information” (H1’25 revenue). Reuters

• Reuters ,  “OpenAI annualized revenue hits $10 billion…” (run-rate context, June 2025). Reuters

• Reuters ,  “OpenAI hits $12 billion in annualized revenue ,  The Information” (run-rate context, July 2025). Reuters

• Reuters ,  “OpenAI loses bid to dismiss part of U.S. authors’ copyright lawsuit” (litigation status). Reuters

• AP ,  “Judge allows newspaper copyright lawsuit against OpenAI to proceed” (NYT/press suits context). AP News

• OpenAI ,  “How we’re responding to The New York Times’ data demands” (company update on preservation orders). openai.com

Note: Several outlets echoed the IPO window and restructuring details, but the items above are the primary, most authoritative sources relied on in this piece.